Leading climate scientists are warning that this year’s bushfire season in NSW could surpass the catastrophic 2019-20 Black Summer fires, with a combination of El Niño conditions, record low soil moisture, and above-average temperatures creating conditions that are “ripe for extreme fire behaviour.”
Researchers from the University of Melbourne’s Climate and Energy College published new modelling this week suggesting the probability of a severe fire season — defined as one causing over one million hectares of damage — has increased to 73 per cent, up from a historical baseline of around 25 per cent.
“The factors that made Black Summer so devastating are all present again, and in some cases more extreme,” lead researcher Dr Sarah Nguyen told Breslin Media Network. “We would be remiss not to sound the alarm now, well before the season begins.”
The NSW Rural Fire Service said it was monitoring conditions closely and was on track to complete 90 per cent of planned hazard reduction burns before November — the target the service sets each year.
