She wobbled around bends in both of her lead-up runs, and her connections had all but ruled her out of Thursday's group 1 $1 million VRC Oaks at Flemington. Yet here stands De Armas, trained by Chris Waller and carrying the colours of OTI Racing, as the second favourite in a field of 18 three-year-old fillies chasing one of Australian racing's most prestigious prizes.
An unplanned path to the VRC Oaks
The former New Zealand-bred filly was sent to the group 1 Thousand Guineas over 1600 metres at Caulfield in October as what was intended to be her final run of the preparation. Things did not go smoothly. De Armas failed to handle the Caulfield bend, staggering badly through the home turn before finishing strongly in fourth place.
Rather than putting her away for the season, Waller opted for one more run. The decision paid off handsomely. Last Saturday, De Armas produced an explosive turn of foot to win the group 2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000 metres at Flemington on Victoria Derby Day, a race widely regarded as the premier lead-up to the Oaks.
OTI syndicator Terry Henderson admitted the camp was caught off guard by the turn of events. "We are a bit surprised that we are in the running because even when she went to the Wakeful, there was a bit of a question mark about her starting until late in the piece," Henderson said. "She wobbled all over the place in the Guineas, and again, if you watch the Wakeful, she wobbled all over the shop on the turn but finished off so well."
Henderson said he had been telling connections the Oaks was not on the agenda, but Waller changed his mind after inspecting the filly on Monday morning and finding her in excellent shape. "He looked at her Monday morning, and she looked a treat, she hadn't lightened off, and he was pretty happy, so we are right to go," Henderson said.
Champion jockey James McDonald will take over in the saddle from Blake Shinn, who misses the ride through bad luck. Drawing barrier one, Henderson is hopeful De Armas can find a comfortable position tucked in behind the field. The one lingering query is stamina: De Armas is by sire Ardrossan, though Henderson noted the filly carries staying pedigree through her dam, Royal Winks, on the maternal side.
Favourite Proxima Dea faces wide barrier challenge
The even-money favourite is Proxima Dea, trained by Sydney horseman David Payne. Her credentials are hard to argue with. At her most recent start she defeated Saturday's Victoria Derby winner Stormy Marco in the group 1 Champion Stakes over 2000 metres at Randwick, and she has now beaten him twice across their two meetings.
"Stormy Marco came out and franked the form. She met him twice, beat him twice. The form's there," Payne said.
Payne also has little concern about whether his filly will handle the step up to 2500 metres. Proxima Dea is a full sister to Gypsy Goddess, the 2022 Queensland Oaks winner, and is by Derby-winning sire Tavistock. "If you look at the way she races, I've always said she's looking for further," Payne said.
The major obstacle for Proxima Dea is barrier 17 of 18, which will demand some good fortune in running. Payne said there is no fixed plan, leaving the tactical decisions to jockey Zac Lloyd.
The field in brief: a race for three
Beyond the top two, the race shapes as a genuine three-way contest. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained Quick Finish finished third in the Victoria Derby over the same 2500-metre trip last Saturday and will come into Thursday's race rock-hard fit on the quick back-up, with Jye McNeil again in the saddle.
The key question hovering over every runner is stamina. At 2500 metres, the VRC Oaks demands both brilliance and the ability to stay. Breeding and recent form suggest Proxima Dea best ticks both boxes, but De Armas, with her devastating late sprint and the advantage of the inside draw, remains a very real threat to cause the upset of the spring carnival.
