Three years have passed since Rugby Australia made the controversial decision to sack head coach Dave Rennie, and the Australia national rugby union team has cycled through three coaches, endured a World Cup disaster, and is still struggling to convincingly close the gap on its closest rivals. The uncomfortable question hanging over the programme is whether any of that upheaval has actually moved the Wallabies forward.
Three Coaches, Four Years of Turbulence
The sequence of events since Rennie's dismissal reads as a cautionary tale in rugby administration. Eddie Jones was brought in amid considerable fanfare, only for his tenure to end in World Cup catastrophe. Joe Schmidt then arrived to conduct what amounted to a repair job, before an arguably awkward handover to current coach Les Kiss. Three coaches in four years, with the roots of the instability traceable directly to that original call to move on Rennie.
The irony sharpened considerably over the past fortnight. Rennie, now coaching the All Blacks, has clearly improved New Zealand, a fact that reportedly comes as no surprise to many of the Wallabies players he once coached. Based on recent results, it is difficult to make a compelling case that Australia is in a stronger position now than it was under Rennie in 2022, particularly given the Wallabies actually beat the All Blacks that year.
The two most recent matches against New Zealand illustrated a split verdict: at Eden Park, Australia's performance pointed to genuine deficiencies in the Wallabies' game; in Sydney, the All Blacks' quality told the story more than Australian failure.
Suaalii and Nawaqanitawase: The League Crossover Question
Two of the most watched players in the Wallabies squad continue to generate debate about the viability of switching codes at the highest level. Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii, despite his undoubted talent, was noted as having been exposed defensively during the Sydney Test, missing five tackles. The numbers point to a player still adapting to the demands of the international rugby union environment.
Meanwhile, Mark Nawaqanitawase remains an enigmatic figure, reportedly toying with the prospect of switching allegiance to Fiji or Italy ahead of the next World Cup. But expectations around his return need careful framing. The trajectories of both Nawaqanitawase and Suaalii suggest it is now meaningfully easier to transition from rugby union to rugby league than in the reverse direction. The 13-man code offers more space and smaller opponents, making it fine preparation for NRL success but poor preparation for the collisions and defensive complexity of Test rugby union.
Meredith Steps Up, Veterans Not Yet Out of the Picture
Not everything from the Sydney Test was gloomy for Wallabies supporters. Flyhalf Declan Meredith produced a performance that represented a significant step forward, looking almost unrecognisable from the nervous debutant who took the field against France in July. A few poor restarts aside, he appeared to justify Kiss's emphatic pre-match backing of the younger playmaker over more experienced options.
Kiss, who began his tenure with the Wallabies eyeing a World Cup turnaround, did not entirely close the door on veteran backs, however. He name-checked Kurtley Beale, who was influential for the Western Force in Super Rugby AUS, while James O'Connor and Bernard Foley were also mentioned in terms that suggested the older generation has not been ruled out of World Cup squads.
A Tricky Draw Could Yet Suit the Wallabies
The Rugby World Cup draw has attracted criticism for placing the world's top three sides, South Africa, France and New Zealand, on a collision course before the final. That congestion, however, creates opportunity on the other side of the bracket. If the Wallabies can replicate their recent level against the All Blacks at the tournament, they could find themselves facing England in a quarter-final in Sydney, a potentially winnable match and one loaded with historical significance given Australia has waited 24 years for a reckoning with the memory of Jonny Wilkinson.
It is a narrow thread to hang hope on, but in a period defined by instability and searching questions about direction, it represents the clearest pathway the Wallabies have had to a deep World Cup run in some time.
