Queensland is facing a formal federal challenge over its refusal to sign on to the national Thriving Kids program — a $4 billion scheme designed to gradually move young children with autism and developmental delay out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme — as advocates warn families across the country are being left in a state of confusion and anxiety.

The program, which launched on Thursday and is co-funded by state and federal governments, targets children aged eight and under with developmental delay or autism who have low to moderate support needs. Every state and territory except Queensland has backed the deal.

Queensland digs in, Canberra pushes back

Premier David Crisafulli has declined to sign the bilateral funding agreement with the Commonwealth, saying he first wants guarantees from Canberra that vulnerable families will not be left behind in the transition.

"The federal government, by its own admission, says that the NDIS is a runaway train," Crisafulli told reporters on Thursday. "All we want is families to be protected, and before we hop in the driver's seat, we want the knowledge from Canberra that vulnerable people won't be collateral damage."

Queensland Disability Services Minister Amanda Camm went further, labelling Thriving Kids a "cost-shifting deal" and "a bad deal for children with a disability."

The federal government is not letting the position go unchallenged. NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister said Queensland must account for its "inability so far to live up to the agreement that it signed jointly with every other state and territory leader and our prime minister earlier this year."

"Families in Queensland are rightly asking their state government what Thriving Kids services will be in place for their children," McAllister said.

The Queensland government had previously agreed in principle to establish so-called "foundational supports" outside the NDIS — including programs like Thriving Kids — as part of a broader deal in exchange for a share of $25 billion in hospital funding. However, Crisafulli has not yet signed the specific bilateral funding agreement to activate Queensland's participation.

What the changes actually mean for families

Despite the political impasse, some clarity exists around the practical timeline. No children currently on the NDIS will be immediately moved off it — changes to NDIS eligibility criteria are not scheduled to take effect until 2028.

In the meantime, new Thriving Kids programs have launched nationally, including an autism helpline and an information hub to help guide families through the transition. Importantly, Queensland families can access those federal supports even though their state government has not formally signed up.

From January 2027, states and territories that have signed on will begin designing and rolling out targeted local support services, ahead of full implementation in 2028, when NDIS access criteria will formally change. Children with permanent and significant disabilities, including those with high support needs, will remain eligible for the NDIS after that point.

Advocates warn of widespread anxiety and confusion

For disability advocates, the political dispute is having a real-world impact on families who are struggling to understand what lies ahead.

Jenny Karavolas, independent co-chair of the Australian Autism Alliance, said the confusion was not confined to Queensland — it was being felt right across the country.

"It doesn't matter which state you're in, families are just concerned and anxious," she said. "It is confusing what's happening, when it's happening. Everyone's trying to get more information to make sure that it's clearer."

Karavolas stressed that it was critical families understood the launch of Thriving Kids did not mean children were being immediately removed from the NDIS, and called for greater coordination between all levels of government.

"The more that we can work with government, and that interconnectivity between states and territories and government can be made clear with a clear roadmap, the better," she said. "Children shouldn't be the shock absorber while the adults are trying to get the right systems and work out which system works."

With the 2028 deadline still years away, pressure is mounting on Queensland to resolve its stand-off with Canberra before families are left further in the dark.