One Nation has clarified that its plan to cap annual migration at 130,000 people would apply to net overseas migration — the measure that tracks how many people enter and remain in Australia after accounting for departures, including returning citizens. The confirmation comes as immigration shapes up as one of the most contested issues of the federal political cycle, with the major parties also jostling over their own targets.

What One Nation's 130,000 migration cap actually means

According to the party's published policy, One Nation wants to cap visas at 130,000 per year to relieve pressure on housing, wages and infrastructure. A party spokesperson has now confirmed that figure refers specifically to the net overseas migration measure — not simply the number of visas granted.

Net overseas migration is calculated by projecting how many people will arrive in and depart from the country. Crucially, it encompasses a wide range of visa categories, including skilled migration, family and partner visas, working holidaymakers, visitor and tourist visas, and refugee and humanitarian programs, as well as returning Australians.

Party leader Pauline Hanson has argued the federal government has leaned too heavily on migration as an economic lever, and that the volume of arrivals has placed unsustainable strain on public services and the housing market. You can read more about the broader dynamics shaping this debate in our analysis of Australia's migration debate and the crucial factor of people not leaving.

Where Labor's migration settings currently stand

Net overseas migration surged to a record 556,000 people in 2023 under the Labor government, largely driven by a post-pandemic rebound in arrivals. The government has since moved to tighten settings, projecting that net overseas migration will fall to 225,000 people by the 2027–28 financial year.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke was scheduled to outline the government's plan for winding back migration at the National Press Club, but that appearance was postponed amid cabinet-level concerns about the political consequences of cuts to specific visa programs. The government is still preparing to release its full framework.

One Nation's proposed ceiling of 130,000 would represent a dramatic reduction even from the government's own revised target, and officials have warned such a cut would affect a broad range of visa categories and hamper productivity across the economy. Migration experts have separately cautioned that policies aimed at blaming migrants for the housing crisis risk overlooking the fact that migrant workers are likely to be essential to building the new homes Australia needs.

Coalition splits over rival immigration figure

The Opposition is also navigating internal tensions over migration. Shadow housing minister Andrew Bragg used a National Press Club address to argue the Coalition should adopt a policy of capping net overseas migration at 180,000 people per year — a significantly lower figure than Labor's target, though well above One Nation's position.

However, the proposal did not appear to have been cleared with Opposition leadership beforehand. Opposition leader Angus Taylor said on Thursday that Bragg was expressing personal views and had not run the speech past him before delivering it.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan also signalled discomfort with significant migration cuts, warning against any moves that could reduce the available workforce in regional areas — a concern that reflects the importance of migrant labour to industries concentrated outside major cities.

A debate with no easy answers

Australia's migration settings have become a flashpoint as the country grapples with a prolonged housing shortage and growing pressure on services in suburban communities. With multiple parties now proposing competing targets — ranging from One Nation's 130,000 to Labor's 225,000 — the question of how to calibrate migration is likely to remain central to the lead-up to the next federal election. Migration experts continue to warn that simplistic approaches risk economic harm, particularly if cuts to visa programs undermine the skilled workforce needed to address the very problems — including housing supply — that are driving public anxiety.