Melbourne is on track for a rare stretch of dry, sunny weather that could last a full week — an unusual occurrence for mid-July, when cold fronts typically roll through every few days. The shift is expected to take hold from Friday, bringing with it two sunny weekend days that forecasters say Melburnians should make the most of.
Why Melbourne Is Getting a Break From Winter Rain
A high pressure system is the key driver behind the settled conditions moving in. Importantly, this particular high was not preceded by a significant cold outbreak, which means frost risk is considerably lower than during the previous dry spell that swept through last week.
Some parts of regional Victoria will still experience cold overnight temperatures, but nothing approaching the severity or duration of the earlier stretch.
Before the sunshine fully asserts itself, there is still some grey to push through. Light southerly winds are drawing moisture into southern and far western Victoria, producing overcast skies and patches of foggy low cloud. It is only once the centre of the high pressure system moves to the east of the state that clearer conditions can truly take hold.
When to Expect the Sunshine in Melbourne
The critical shift is forecast to occur on Friday. Thursday could still feel bleak and overcast, but from Friday morning brightness is expected to return — and should hold through the weekend.
Two consecutive sunny days in the middle of winter is a welcome outcome for the city. Residents are encouraged to get outdoors and take advantage of the conditions while they last.
Melbourne's Rainfall Totals and What the Dry Spell Means
Melbourne has recorded 36mm of rain so far in July, measured at the halfway point of the month. The city's monthly average sits at 48mm, meaning totals are tracking reasonably well — however, the dry week ahead could put that figure in jeopardy if little or no rain falls before month's end.
This is already the second notable dry spell of the month, with a lengthy period of settled weather having occurred in the week prior. The current pattern is unusual for winter but not entirely out of keeping with what has been seen recently.
What Comes After the Sunny Spell
The next weather change is expected to arrive around the middle of next week. At this stage, however, it does not appear to be a particularly strong system, suggesting the shift back to more typical winter conditions may be gradual rather than dramatic.
For now, Melbourne has a clear window to enjoy some rare mid-winter sunshine — and after a grey start to the week, that is something worth planning around.
