An extraordinary meeting of Victorian Labor's factional conveners has resolved to move against Premier Jacinta Allan, bringing a simmering internal revolt to a critical point on Sunday night with a potential leadership spill now looming as early as Tuesday when MPs return to state parliament.
The closed-door gathering, which drew conveners from both the party's Left and Right factions, was called specifically to determine whether Allan still commands the caucus support needed to lead the government to the November 28 state election. According to four sources with knowledge of the meeting, the room broadly agreed that after nearly three years in the top job, Allan's time as premier is coming to an end.
Allan Defiant as Conveners Conclude She Has Lost Caucus Support
Despite the weight of factional opinion turning against her, Allan is understood to have made her position clear: she will not resign. The premier spent Sunday night at her home in Bendigo with senior advisers and told her supporters that regardless of what factional chiefs decide, she intends to fight on.
One source said Allan was informed on Sunday night that she had lost the support of the Labor caucus. However, not everyone at the meeting agreed that the situation was clear-cut. At least one MP pushed back, insisting the premier "absolutely has the numbers" and arguing that the conveners had not sufficiently canvassed the full breadth of caucus opinion before reaching their conclusion.
"Some people don't want to do the hard work. They want things on a plate and I can tell you now the caucus are there behind the premier," that MP said.
There is also reported consternation among some MPs — particularly within the dominant Left faction — that rank-and-file parliamentarians were not adequately consulted before Sunday's meeting took place.
Nevertheless, seven Victorian Labor sources have indicated they believe Allan would lose if her leadership came to a formal vote among the party's 69 MPs.
Ben Carroll Touted as Replacement But Faces His Own Complications
The leadership manoeuvres are unfolding without a declared challenger. Deputy Premier Ben Carroll has been widely identified as Allan's most likely successor, and sources say he has indicated privately that he would be a contender if the position became vacant — but that he would not actively use his numbers to bring the premier down.
Carroll's position is further complicated by a public statement he made just last month. Speaking directly to reporters, he declared he would not challenge Allan, adding: "I've got a young daughter at home, and I couldn't be more proud to make sure that she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right."
Multiple sources from both factions acknowledge it would be politically difficult for Carroll — who sits on the Right — to challenge Allan after making that declaration, even as some within Allan's own Left faction are reportedly urging him to do so.
One option being considered is a delegation of factional leaders approaching Allan directly and asking her to step aside. Two sources said they found it difficult to believe she would yield without a fight, but conceded it was not impossible if it became unmistakably clear she had lost the numbers.
Dire Polling Fuelling the Pressure
The leadership turmoil is being driven in large part by alarming polling that points to a crushing defeat for Labor at the November election. The most recent polling has the Coalition leading Labor 56–44 on a two-party preferred basis.
More strikingly, on primary votes the Coalition sits at 29 per cent while Labor has fallen behind One Nation, which is polling at 24 per cent. One union leader has warned of an "orange wave," suggesting One Nation could win as many as 34 seats if the polling translates to election day results.
Allan is also facing mounting pressure on several other fronts, including Big Build corruption allegations, ongoing cost of living pressures, and a teachers' strike that landed this week.
What Happens Next — and Why a Spill Is Complicated
A supporter of Allan warned that if Tuesday's caucus meeting reflects majority support for a change, the premier could face a vote of no confidence. "It would be a very brave premier that continued," the source said.
Any formal leadership contest would trigger previously untested party rules under which a new leader is chosen by a combination of a caucus vote and a ballot of party members, with equal weight given to both. That process can take up to six weeks — a significant stretch of time with the state election just four months away.
Under those rules, if both Allan and Carroll became candidates in a formal spill, both would be stood aside from their day-to-day duties while an interim leader ran the government — a scenario that would effectively paralyse the administration at a critical moment.
As with a previous round of leadership speculation in June, the path to removing Allan remains lined with assumptions that have not yet been tested, and no clear mechanism for change has yet been set in motion.
