Former Prime Minister John Howard has made a stunning admission — that Australia, the United States and Britain may never have gone to war in Iraq had a critical piece of intelligence not turned out to be catastrophically wrong. Speaking publicly on the matter for the first time in this way, Howard conceded that false intelligence about weapons of mass destruction was, in his own words, a potential "game changer" that could have halted the invasion before it began.

The False Intelligence That Changed History

The Iraq War was launched in the wake of the September 11 attacks, with the United States, United Kingdom and Australia forming what became known as the "coalition of the willing." The central justification for the invasion rested heavily on intelligence assessments that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction — assessments that United Nations inspectors later concluded were simply wrong.

When asked directly what would have happened had that pivotal intelligence accurately reflected the true situation on the ground, Howard did not hesitate.

"I think that would have given us pause to think hard about whether to go ahead," he said. "That would have been, to my mind and in retrospect, a game changer."

It marks the first time Howard has suggested that he, US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair would likely not have proceeded with the invasion under those circumstances.

Misled, But Not Deliberately Deceived

Howard was careful to distinguish between being misled and being deliberately deceived, pushing back on suggestions that he or his government had been intentionally fed false information.

"Oh no, I don't think I was misled. Misled implies deliberate deceit. No, we weren't deliberately deceived," he said.

Nevertheless, twenty-five years on from September 11, the former Prime Minister effectively concedes he was unintentionally misled — that the intelligence his government relied upon to commit Australian troops was fundamentally flawed, even if that flaw was not the product of bad faith.

Operation Iraqi Freedom ultimately left five Australian soldiers dead and hundreds more injured — a human cost built on a foundation of intelligence that did not hold up to scrutiny.

Hussein, September 11 and the Bush Agenda

Howard also revealed that Saddam Hussein had been in the crosshairs of the Bush White House from the very beginning, with the US administration drawing connections between Hussein and the September 11 attacks. Howard said he personally did not believe that connection existed — yet Australia still joined the coalition.

Despite everything, Howard maintained that he does not view the overthrow of Hussein as a mistake, and still believes the greater good was ultimately served by the intervention.

A Geopolitical Cost Still Being Paid

Not everyone shares that view. Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, visiting Canberra, offered a blunt assessment of the war's long-term consequences, arguing the world is still reckoning with the fallout.

"That was a profound and enduring geopolitical cost which ensued from, I think, an ultimately failed geopolitical decision," Rudd said.

The invasion is widely credited with destabilising Iraq and transforming it into a breeding ground for violent sectarian conflict — contributing directly to the rise of ISIS and strengthening the hand of groups including Hamas and Hezbollah. A quarter of a century later, Howard's rare moment of candour forces a renewed reckoning with one of the most consequential foreign policy decisions in Australia's modern history.