El Niño Expected to Peak in December — and It Could Be the Strongest on Record Since 1950

The United Nations has warned that the current El Niño event will continue to strengthen before peaking in December, and may prove to be one of the most powerful on record since at least 1950. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) delivered the stark assessment in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, cautioning that the phenomenon is already reshaping weather patterns across the globe and threatening to push temperatures to unprecedented levels.

A Record-Breaking El Niño Peak Is Now in Sight

The WMO confirmed that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle is "firmly established and strengthening rapidly," with forecasters assigning a near-100 per cent probability that the event will persist through February 2027. The forecast draws on a consensus from 13 leading national and international meteorological centres, lending it considerable scientific weight.

At the core of the alarm is the dramatic rise in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The temperature anomaly in that critical region climbed from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August. By the October–November–December period, that anomaly is projected to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal — a figure that would shatter the previous record of 2.6°C set during the powerful 2015–2016 El Niño event.

WMO chief Celeste Saulo noted that El Niño does not introduce new heat into the climate system — rather, it releases heat that has been accumulating in the ocean. "The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it," she said. "There is simply more heat available to release."

Why This El Niño Is So Dangerous

El Niño works by warming surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, triggering cascading changes in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall across the world. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months, alternating with its cooling counterpart, La Niña, and periods of neutral conditions in between.

What makes the current event particularly concerning is the backdrop against which it is unfolding. The previous El Niño was a significant driver behind 2023 becoming the second-hottest year ever recorded, and 2024 surpassing that to become the all-time warmest year, sitting roughly 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. With ocean temperatures now even higher, scientists fear the compounding effect will be severe.

The WMO warned the event "will drive weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems and communities across the globe," bringing above-average temperatures to much of the world while disrupting rainfall — increasing the risk of both drought and flooding depending on the region.

Regions Already Feeling the Impact

The consequences are not theoretical. Parts of Central America are already experiencing serious drought conditions, with reports of livestock dying and crops failing as the event tightens its grip. While El Niño typically peaks between November and February, the associated spike in surface air temperatures tends to follow with a delay — meaning much of the worst impact may still lie ahead for communities around the world.

The WMO's update makes clear that the phenomenon's interaction with human-caused climate change is a key factor amplifying the risks. A warmer baseline means El Niño events now have far more stored oceanic heat to draw upon than in previous decades, raising the ceiling on how extreme conditions can become.

What to Expect in the Months Ahead

With the forecast peak arriving in December and effects likely to linger well into early 2027, authorities and communities in vulnerable regions are being urged to prepare for disrupted seasons. Forecasters expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific to reach record levels during the October–November–December window, a development that would mark a historic milestone in climate observation.

The WMO says it will continue to issue monthly updates as the situation develops, tracking whether this El Niño does indeed surpass all others in the modern observational record stretching back to 1950.