The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued an important reality check about Australia's current El Niño, warning that while the event may shatter all records dating back to 1950, a stronger event does not automatically translate into a hotter or drier summer for the country.

In an advisory released on Tuesday, the BoM confirmed that climate models are pointing to the current El Niño potentially producing central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3°C above average — which would surpass the previous record set during the 1982–83 event, when temperatures peaked at around 2.6°C above average in January 1983.

Why a record-breaking El Niño doesn't mean record-breaking impacts

The BoM has been careful to stress that the intensity of an El Niño measured in the Pacific Ocean does not directly determine how severely it will affect Australian weather. Multiple climate drivers interact simultaneously to shape what Australians actually experience.

"Every El Niño is different," the bureau stated. "A strong event can produce only modest effects in some regions, while a weaker event can have significant impacts."

Those other drivers include the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea surface temperatures in Australia's surrounding oceans, seasonal patterns, and the ongoing influence of climate change. At present, the IOD sits at a neutral setting — but all major climate models suggest it could shift to a positive phase later in spring. A positive IOD typically increases the probability of drier conditions, particularly across southern and eastern Australia, compounding potential El Niño effects in those regions.

Climate change is also independently pushing up the likelihood of hotter summers and more frequent extreme heat events, regardless of El Niño's strength in any given year.

What the forecasts say for rainfall and temperature

The BoM's latest long-range outlook, issued on 10 September, indicates most of Australia is likely to see above-average temperatures over the coming months. Rainfall, however, is forecast to vary considerably depending on location.

Between October and December, the regions most likely to experience below-average rainfall include:

  • Southern New South Wales
  • Victoria
  • Tasmania

By contrast, most of Western Australia, along with parts of central and northern Australia, are forecast to receive above-average rainfall during the same period.

The BoM notes that El Niño's influence on Australian rainfall typically weakens as the calendar moves into early summer, even if the event itself continues through the season.

Bushfire risk and the bigger picture

While El Niño is broadly associated with drier and hotter conditions in Australia — factors that elevate bushfire risk — the BoM has emphasised that local conditions and short-term weather patterns will play a significant role in determining actual fire danger across the country. El Niño raises the probability of risk but does not guarantee a severe fire season on its own.

It is also worth noting that despite the current El Niño being underway since June, 2026 has been a wetter-than-usual year across large parts of Australia. The year opened with an active La Niña pattern and a very wet northern wet season before conditions rapidly shifted toward El Niño during autumn.

The previous El Niño, which developed in spring 2023 and persisted into early 2024, was classified as a moderate-to-strong event. If current forecasts hold, the present event would eclipse it in terms of raw Pacific Ocean intensity — making it the most powerful El Niño in the modern climate record.

For Australians monitoring conditions heading into summer, the bureau's message is clear: pay attention to the full range of climate drivers shaping the outlook, not just the headline El Niño number.