Australia is being called on to take a leading role in one of the most consequential geopolitical contests of our time — a race between China and the United States to control vast deposits of critical minerals sitting on the floor of the Pacific Ocean, in an industry valued at up to US$30 trillion (A$41.88 trillion). Experts warn that if Australia remains on the sidelines, the fallout could fracture its relationships with key Pacific neighbours and leave the region exposed to foreign exploitation.
A Treasure Trove on the Ocean Floor
Deep-sea mining does not yet exist as a commercial industry, but the technology to make it happen is already in place, and nations have been surveying the Pacific seabed for years. The primary target is so-called polymetallic nodules — potato-sized mineral formations found between 3,500 and 6,500 metres below the surface, built up layer by layer over millions of years. These nodules contain the critical minerals widely regarded as essential to a global green energy transition.
Extracting them involves a large harvesting vehicle travelling across the pitch-black ocean floor, vacuuming up the nodules along with the surrounding sediment layer, then pumping the material to the surface through a pipe for sorting.
The race to be first to commercialise this process has now intensified dramatically, driven by competing strategic interests between Washington and Beijing.
The US and China Move Fast — and Divide the Pacific
The contest shifted into a higher gear when the Trump administration issued an executive order allowing US companies to apply for deep-sea mining licences in American Pacific territories, effectively sidestepping the international framework being developed by the United Nations agency responsible for regulating the ocean floor. One US company has publicly committed to beginning operations as early as 2027, and Washington further alarmed Pacific island communities by announcing plans to auction off a maritime zone near American Samoa for deep-sea mining.
China has moved swiftly in parallel. In 2025, Beijing signed a cooperation agreement with the Cook Islands covering seabed mineral development and research, and is reportedly weighing a similar arrangement with Kiribati.
The result is a sharp divide among Pacific Island nations. Nauru, the Cook Islands, Tonga and Kiribati have expressed support for the emerging industry, while the remaining members of the Pacific Islands Forum are firmly opposed, citing serious environmental concerns about an industry whose full ecological impacts remain largely untested.
Why This Matters for Australia
According to the Lowy Institute's Connor Graham, Australia has two distinct reasons to be worried. The first is the potential for deep-sea mining to fracture the Pacific's longstanding regional unity. "If deep-sea mining divides the Pacific into two camps, then we will see a breakdown in that unity that has historically defined the Pacific, and that could be a destabilising force that could leave Pacific nations vulnerable to external influences," Graham said.
He illustrated the risk plainly: if Kiribati were to sign a mining deal with China, it would become more closely aligned with Beijing — still nominally a member of the Pacific Islands Forum, but increasingly drawn into China's orbit rather than Australia's.
Graham argues Australia should position itself as a moderator, actively championing a Pacific-led governance framework for deep-sea mining that gives all island nations clear, baseline standards for any seabed exploration or extraction. Without that kind of framework, smaller nations risk being picked off individually by major powers offering attractive bilateral deals.
The stakes extend well beyond environmental policy. As Australia navigates its own resource security challenges, the minerals locked beneath the Pacific represent a critical dimension of the broader strategic competition playing out in its immediate neighbourhood — one that demands engagement, not observation.
