Transactions completed entirely by artificial intelligence assistants are on course to outnumber those made by human shoppers, according to the president of global payments giant Stripe — a forecast that would fundamentally reshape how online retail has operated for three decades.
John Collison, the Irish billionaire who co-founded Stripe with his brother Patrick in 2010, made the prediction in an interview this week when asked whether agent-initiated purchases would eventually exceed those made by people clicking through websites. "I think so," he said.
The company Collison leads is no small player in the space. Stripe processed approximately $US1.9 trillion ($2.9 trillion) in payments in 2025, a figure it says represents close to 2 per cent of global economic output. In Australia alone, around 37,000 new businesses joined the platform each month over the past year.
The End of the Website Shopfront
Collison drew a striking historical parallel to illustrate how quickly the technological foundations of commerce can shift. He compared the web browser and the smartphone app to the fax machine — tools that once seemed indispensable before being overtaken by something entirely new.
"All these technologies, using a web browser or using an iPhone app, those are all a moment in time," he said. "Brands are durable, and people still want to buy bicycles and t-shirts. But the actual technological underpinnings come and go pretty quickly."
The vision he describes would see shoppers interacting with an AI assistant rather than browsing a retailer's website — the assistant handling the searching, comparing, and ordering on the customer's behalf. He acknowledged the shift is still in its infancy. "That's very small today, but we are building all the plumbing," he said.
What AI Shopping Looks Like in Practice
Collison was careful to temper the more futuristic interpretations of fully autonomous AI shopping. He argued the technology sector tends to oversell complete independence, and that a genuinely useful AI assistant would still pause to seek human confirmation before money changes hands.
He used a practical example to illustrate where AI adds value without overstepping. A shopper preparing a recipe might ask an assistant to order what they need — and the AI can reasonably assume the pantry already holds salt and onion, focusing only on what is actually missing. But decisions that carry personal meaning, such as planning a holiday, should remain in human hands because the choosing is itself part of the enjoyment.
"The picking is the high-value work," he said. "The low-value work is all the trudging through the forms."
On the question of who bears legal responsibility if an AI agent orders the wrong item or falls victim to fraud, Collison did not offer a definitive answer. He acknowledged new forms of fraud are inevitable but expressed confidence that defences would keep pace — comparing the dynamic to a long-running arms race between criminals and law enforcement. "It's a cops and robbers game," he said. "The equilibrium will evolve once again in the fraud area."
Implications for Online Retail and Australian Businesses
The shift could upend the economics that have underpinned online retail for the past two decades, where search advertising and search engine optimisation have dictated which brands get found. Collison noted that when he researches products through AI tools himself, smaller and more specialised labels tend to surface — citing Melbourne accessories brand Bellroy, a Stripe client, as an example of the kind of company that could benefit.
Separately, Stripe this week launched its Stripe Treasury product in Australia, moving the company into more direct competition with local banks. The company is also reported to be in discussions with private equity firm Advent International over a potential bid for PayPal valued at more than $US53 billion ($81 billion) — though Collison declined to confirm or deny those talks.
On the domestic regulatory front, Australia's payment rules are set to change on 1 October, when the Reserve Bank will ban card surcharges and reduce interchange fee caps. Collison said the reforms would have less impact online, where cards are already the standard method of payment. "We go along with the rules whatever they are," he said. "If the pub closes at 11 you go home at 11."
